Evidente. El Mercado de Predicción

I want to share a few points of the last Prediction Markets Cluster in New York where Evidente participated.

On April 24th Evidente’s team spent the whole day talking about Prediction Markets with the industry leaders and renowned academics. Here it goes:

Find the right audience to make the markets work, this means dispersion and different opinions.

From IEM.
•    Make very visible (bright icon) when the markets closes
•    Visually engage  traders’s  senses
•    Use visual elements

From Newsfutures.com
•    Make bets obvious from start to end
•    The 4 REWARDS that you need to give
o    Recognition
o    Relevance
o    Relationship
o    Reward (Monetary-prize might not be the only reward)
•    Move beyond price when offering prediction services. More than SAS
•    Harvest collective intelligence. Create trends

From Robin Hanson. George Mason University
•    Inputs- Costs (What type of incentives are enough?)
•    Traders are looking for, give them a clear answer to this:
o    How do I express my opinion?
o    What exactly is my influence?
o    What exactly are my incentives?
•    What is it that we are doing to encourage the people to participate and tell us the truth?
•    Create transparency between the users and the platform (That where Evidente comes in)

From Tom Malone.  MIT
•    Mapping the genome of Collective Intelligence
o    What- creates software modules
o    Who-crowd
o    How- by collaborating
o    Why- Reputation- incentives
•    Example of Kasparov Vs the World (http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1252350 )
•    http://www.marketocracy.com/
•    The 1-9-90 rule should be modelled in our PLC

From CrowdCast.com
•    Fixed Payoff just for trading.
•    Payoffs are fixed but interim values are according to crowd beliefs